I will admit – some years are easier to predict than others. But this year – wow. It feels like nominees are all over the place this year. And I think it shows in my predictions.
There are no precursors to this show – so these guesses are really just that. And now that Academy Award nominations were moved there really are no helpful clues.
Which is good – keeps my brain active, which is the whole point of this exercise anyway. See how close I come. And let me tell you – the TV category – I’ve never been good at that one.
And now that I’ve shared my predictions with you, they’re probably all wrong!
FILM
Best Motion Picture – Drama
“Rampart”
“The Descendants”
“The Help”
“Hugo”
“The Ides of March”
“Moneyball”
“War Horse”
Start off with the worst category. Well, I don’t think War Horse will win or Hugo. The Descendants has a good chance, along with The Help, Moneyball and Ides of March. From those four, Ides of March may have a good shot since it is an election year. The Help has great buzz and great acting. Moneyball involved great screenwriters and The Descendants is great Oscar bait. I think it may come down to Moneyball and The Descendants with Moneyball winning. Or The Help. Why is this so hard this year!! Final answer – The Descendants.
Best Motion Picture – Comedy Or Musical
“50/50″
“The Artist”
“Bridesmaids”
“Midnight in Paris”
“My Week With Marilyn”
I think ‘The Artist’ will win just because of the momentum it’s slowly gaining. And it has yet to even officially enter the Oscar race. No one wants to stop the train now – and look bad you know? Would you want to be one of the major organizations that denies this movie its due?
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Glenn Close – “Albert Nobbs”
Viola Davis – “The Help”
Rooney Mara – “The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo”
Meryl Streep – “The Iron Lady”
Tilda Swinton – “We Need to Talk About Kevin”
Meryl Streep will win because the HFPA loves her despite not winning an Oscar in some time. She just looks good with awards in her hands. I think Swinton could be a major roadblock for her.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
George Clooney – “The Descendants”
Leonardo DiCaprio -”J. Edgar”
Michael Fassbender – “Shame”
Ryan Gosling – “The Ides of March”
Brad Pitt – “Moneyball”
This could finally be Brad Pitt’s year. And it helps he’s in a slew of really good critically acclaimed movies. The Tree of Life is also helping his standing. But I think it will be Moneyball that finally gives him an actual award.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy Or Musical
Jodi Foster – “Carnage”
Charlize Theron – “Young Adult”
Kristen Wiig – “Bridesmaids”
Michelle Williams – “My Week With Marilyn”
Kate Winslet – “Carnage”
I just have a hunch about this one. Carnage won several Tonys when it first appeared, but I think since it has two actors nominated in it, they may cancel each other out leaving Michelle Williams – as the woman who always wanted respect – to finally get it.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy Or Musical
Jean Dujardin – “The Artist”
Brendan Gleeson – “The Guard”
Joseph Gordon-Levitt – “50/50″
Ryan Gosling – “Crazy, Stupid, Love”
Owen Wilson – “Midnight in Paris”
I don’t even really know why Owen Wilson is nominated – sorry to say. And I love the guy! But I think Dujardin will get it. Maybe not an Oscar, but definitely a Golden Globe. Joseph Gordon-Levitt is a good dark horse – due to character uniqueness – and you got to love a guy who shaves his head on film. At least I have more respect.
Best Performance by an Actress In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Berenice Bejo – “The Artist”
Janet McTeer – “Albert Nobbs”
Octavia Spencer – “The Help”
Jessica Chastain – “The Help”
Shailene Woodley – “The Descendants”
This category is weird to me in that any of the three actresses nominated for The Help could win. Complete opposite of what I said above with Michelle Williams. Funny huh?
Best Performance by an Actor In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Kenneth Branagh – “My Week With Marilyn”
Albert Brooks – “Drive”
Jonah Hill – “Moneyball”
Viggo Mortensen – “A Dangerous Method “
Christopher Plummer – “Beginners”
This has to be the worst category on this list besides Best Drama. They’re both wide open. And no one really sticks out, like they’re all good, but I haven’t heard much buzz about anyone in particular. I do like Viggo Mortensen – and think he should be rewarded at some point for his acting choices. There’s just something dark and mysterious about him – which also could drive off voters. Kenneth Branagh should get it. Sir Laurence Olivier? Come on – who can deny him?!
Best Director – Motion Picture
Woody Allen – “Midnight in Paris”
George Clooney – “The Ides of March”
Michel Hazanavicius – “The Artist”
Alexander Payne – “The Descendants”
Martin Scorsese – “Hugo”
I think The Artist will get a few awards this year as a symbolic thank you and memory to old cinema. Alexander Payne could be a dark horse. But I think Hazanavicius will emerge as winner.
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
“Midnight In Paris” – Woody Allen
“The Ides of March” – George Clooney , Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon
“The Artist” – Michel Hazanavicius
“The Descendants” – Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash
“Moneyball” – Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian
I really want to go with Moneyball – once you’re hot, you’re hot. Sorkin won an Oscar this year and he’s been mentioned to write about Steve Jobs. Who else would you want? And Zaillian – the guy wrote Schlinder’s List, the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and American Gangster. As a side note, if you can write a script about the dead art of silent movies and turn it into one the most talked about movies of the year – that says something too.
Best Original Song – Motion Picture
“Gnomeo & Juliet “- “Hello Hello” (Elton John)
“Machine Gun Preacher” – “The Keeper” (Chris Cornell)
“Albert Nobbs” – “Lay Your Head Down” (Glenn Close)
“The Help” – “The Living Proof” (Mary J. Blige)
“W.E.” – “Masterpiece” (Madonna)
Ugh, toss up between Chris Cornell and Mary J Blige. Alternative singers winning big awards seems to be a thing right now, but I just think Blige could pull this one out. Her voice, her soul poured out in melodies. Yet my youth lies with grunge and Soundgarden.
Best Original Score – Motion Picture
“The Artist” – Ludovic Bource
“W.E.” – Abel Korzeniowski
“The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo” – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
“Hugo” – Howard Shore
“War Horse” – John Williams
See above. Gotta go with Reznor – also current Oscar winner. All these years he rebelled against the establishment and now he’s a part of it – and changing it. For the good. Plus, I think the movie’s edginess will help him.
Best Animated Feature Film
“The Adventures of Tintin”
“Arthur Christmas”
“Cars 2″
“Puss in Boots”
“Rango”
A part of me says Cars 2, because it’s a Pixar movie. But not all Pixar movies are made the same – starting with this one. Didn’t turn out to be such a Godsend as we thought it would be. Critics hated it and therefore audiences didn’t flock to it. None of the others stand it too – but I have to choose one. I like Puss in Boots or Tintin for sentimental values. I like Puss in Boots. The HFPA likes contemporary – so I’m going with the Shrek spinoff.
Best Foreign Language Film
“The Flowers of War” (China)
“In The Land of Blood and Honey” (USA – directed by Angelina Jolie)
“The Kid With The Bike” (Belgium)
“A Separation” (Iran)
“The Skin I Live In” (Spain)
I have heard nothing but good things from A Separation. It may be hard to watch, but the story is rich – and for something like that to come from Iran – that’s just amazing to me. Just shows there’s talent and surprises everywhere. Don’t judge a book by its cover.
TELEVISION
Best Television Series – Drama
“American Horror Story” (FX)
“Boardwalk Empire” (HBO)
“Boss” (Starz)
“Game of Thrones” (HBO)
“Homeland” (Showtime)
Wow, just noticed – if you don’t have basic cable, you couldn’t have seen any of these nominated shows! By buzz alone, I might have to guess American Horror Story – there seems to be quiet yet continuing talk about it. Game of Thrones’s excitement has kind of passed on, and Boss didn’t seem to get a lot of any buzz. But Boardwalk Empire has to win – it’s the story of America – really.
Best Television Series – Comedy Or Musical
“Enlightened” (HBO)
“Episodes” (Showtime)
“Glee” (FOX)
“Modern Family” (ABC)
“New Girl” (FOX)
Do we even need to guess? I think Modern Family is on a train that can’t be stopped. Glee won a few years back, but I think it’s past its prime to win major awards. And while New Girl is cute, I just don’ t think it deserves to win just yet – maybe a few years from now.
Best Performance by an Actress In A Television Series – Drama
Claire Danes – “Homeland”
Mireille Enos – “The Killing”
Julianna Margulies – “The Good Wife”
Madeleine Stowe – “Revenge”
Callie Thorne – “Necessary Roughness”
Julianna Margulies seems to be a strong candidate for me. Claire Danes won last year and feels like a safe bet, but I am going to go out on a limb with the ER veteran. The Good Wife is a spectacular show, juicy and cerebral. The writing is amazing.
Best Performance by an Actor In A Television Series – Drama
Steve Buscemi – “Boardwalk Empire”
Bryan Cranston – “Breaking Bad”
Kelsey Grammer – “Boss”
Jeremy Irons – “The Borgias”
Damian Lewis – “Homeland”
I always seem to guess this category wrong. Bryan Cranston was not nominated for an Emmy this year – first time in three years, yet at least he gets a nomination unlike Jim Parsons.I really want Steve Buscemi, but I’m also not an official voter! I’m going to go out on a limb for this one – why not Steve Buscemi!
Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Laura Dern – “Enlightened”
Zooey Deschanel – “New Girl”
Tina Fey – “30 Rock”
Laura Linney – “The Big C”
Amy Poehler – “Parks and Recreation”
Tina Fey has become too mainstream to win this category – along with Alec Baldwin. They both deserve it, but I think their acting in this particular show has jumped the shark. Amy Poehler is a great choice, but I think she may have a chance since she shares a SNL background. Zooey Deschanel – too new too win, but Glee won in its infancy as did Desperate Housewives, so she does have a chance – for novelty’s sake. But I think I’ll give it to Linney.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Alec Baldwin – “30 Rock”
David Duchovny – “Californication”
Johnny Galecki – “The Big Bang Theory”
Thomas Jane – “Hung”
Matt LeBlanc – “Episodes”
My favorite in this is always Alec Baldwin, but his recent troubles could play a part in voting. It shouldn’t since it has nothing to do with acting, but that doesn’t mean it won’t play a small role in a subliminal way. When I first saw this category I was surprised to see a no-show from double Emmy winner Jim Parsons. Which leaves Johnny Galecki to pick up the slack. Sometimes life imitates art, so why not David Duchovny? Got a good shot at winning!
Best Mini-Series Or Motion Picture Made for Television
“Cinema Verite” (HBO)
“Downton Abbey Masterpiece” (PBS)
“The Hour” (BBC America)
“Mildred Pierce” (HBO)
“Too Big To Fail” (HBO)
Comes down to Mildred Pierce or Downton Abbey Masterpiece for me. And I think Mildred Pierce wll emerge as winner. It has momentum while Downton has another chance to win when the new season comes out!
Best Performance by an Actress in a Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Romola Garai – “The Hour”
Diane Lane – “Cinema Verite”
Elizabeth McGovern – “Downton Abbey Masterpiece”
Emma Watson – “Appropriate Adult”
Kate Winslet – “Mildred Pierce”
Winslet hands down. Not only is she one of my generation’s greatest actresses, but she’s not afraid to take dark, meaty roles. McGovern could be the dark horse.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Hugh Bonneville – “Downton Abbey Masterpiece”
Idris Elba – “Luther”
William Hurt – “Too Big To Fail”
Bill Nighy – “Page Eight Masterpiece”
Dominic West – “The Hour”
Bill Nighy. Don’t know why. But I know anything with the word ‘masterpiece’ in it – it’s got to be good right? Seriously, I like that he has range. Or Hugh Bonneville. Really a toss up here.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Jessica Lang – “American Horror Story”
Kelly MacDonald – “Boardwalk Empire”
Maggie Smith – “Downton Abbey Masterpiece”
Sofia Vergara – “Modern Family”
Evan Rachel Wood – “Mildred Pierce”
My heart tells me Maggie Smith. No one else really stands out for me. But she – she’s always amazing.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Peter Dinklage – “Game of Thrones”
Paul Giamatti – “Too Big To Fail”
Guy Pearce – “Mildred Pierce”
Tim Robbins – “Cinema Verite”
Eric Stonestreet – “Modern Family”
I always want Stonestreet to win, but then Paul Giamatti is just so awesome. Have huge amounts of respect for him and his acting choices. Peter Dinklage won the Emmy this year. But then Guy Pearce also makes daring choices. I hate this category. I love Giamatti, but I think I’ll go with Dinklage.
Ricky Gervais will return to host the ceremony, which airs on Sunday, January 15 on NBC. Winners are chosen by members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. Also at the event, actor Morgan Freeman will be honored with the Cecil B. DeMille Award for lifetime achievement.
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