Kellene’s 2011 Primetime Emmy Predictions

In case you haven’t heard, this Sunday is the 63rd annual Primetime Emmy Awards.

Let me first admit – I am a horrible handicapper for the Emmys. I’m way better off predicting the Oscars, but nonetheless I still like doing it. So, if you hoping to win your Emmy pool – be warned!

The Emmys are always a gamble to predict. And their history has shown that too. I don’t know why, but they are just hard to guess – which could also be a good thing, because you never know what could happen AND there’s the potential for many surprises.

I will only focus on major categories –

(stars indicate last year’s winners) My choices for this year are underlined.

Outstanding Drama Series

Boardwalk Empire

Friday Night Lights

Game of Thrones

Dexter

* Mad Men

The Good Wife

Sometimes this category is horrible to predict. Like this year. I think it will be between Boardwalk and Mad Men, but the Good Wife could be a dark horse. Friday Night Lights doesn’t feel strong to me. And Game of Thrones – the name turns me off and may not be taken seriously. It may have had a better chance during the Lord of the Rings Oscar era, but not now. Boardwalk just feels good to me. On a side note, I’m surprised Walking Dead didn’t make the cut – could have replaced Friday Night Lights on this list.

Outstanding Comedy Series  

Glee

* Modern Family

The Big Bang Theory

Parks and Recreation

The Office

30 Rock

Emmy favorite 30 Rock vs. (still) newcomer Modern Family? Big Bang and Parks and Rec seem like fillers to me in this category. And Glee – seems to only be a Golden Globe favorite. Modern Family had some really great shows this year – and the writing – wow. I think, sad to say, but 30 Rock may be becoming a dinosaur in this category. And Modern Family is taking over.

Outstanding Lead Actor in Drama

Steve Buscemi – Boardwalk Empire

Kyle Chandler – Friday Night Lights

Timothy Olphant – Justified

Michael C. Hall – Dexter

Jon Hamm – Mad Men

Hugh Laurie – House

The man who won this category the past three years – Bryan Cranston – wasn’t even nominated this year. So, that opens this category wide open. I so badly want Hugh Laurie to win, but Boardwalk, I think could gain some momentum this year. It may come down toHammand Buscemi.

Outstanding Lead Actress in Drama

Kathy Bates – Harry’s Law

Mariska Hargitay – Law and Order: SVU

Julianna Margulies – The Good Wife

Mireille Enos – The Killing

Connie Britton – Friday Night Lights

Elisabeth Moss – Mad Men

Another horrible actor category to predict. Kyra Sedgewick won last year, but the Closer no longer airs, so she’s out. Think Julianna Margulies has a good shot, since the show is basically centered around her, and she did really well with ER, so maybe this could be a redemption of sorts for her. But Kathy Bates has an Oscar, so she knows what she’s doing. And Harry’s Law was fun to watch.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in Drama

Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones

Josh Charles – The Good Wife

Alan Cumming – The Good Wife

Walton Goggins – Justified

John Slattery – Mad Men

Andre Braugher – Men of a Certain Age

I love Alan Cumming – amazing Broadway actor – but can he beat the Mad Men mystique? This one, and the next category are really hard to predict. Josh Charles could be a good contender, but I’m going to go with my wishes on this one.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in Drama

Kelly Macdonald – Boardwalk Empire

* Archie Panjabi – The Good Wife

Margo Martindale – Justified

Michelle Forbes – The Killing

Christina Hendricks – Mad Men

Christine Baranski – The Good Wife  

I’d like to see Christine Baranski win – she previously won for Cybil way back in the day, but she’s versatile and could pull it off. But – Archie Panjabi has a streak going – granted its one win, but it’s still a win in this category for the same character. No one else really stands out to me.

Outstanding Lead Actor in Comedy

Louis C.K. – Louie

Matt LeBlanc – Episodes

Steve Carell – The Office

Alec Baldwin – 30 Rock

* Jim Parsons – The Big Bang Theory

Johnny Galecki – The Big Bang Theory

So do you reward the actor who left his series or do you give an Emmy to a past winner? Alec Baldwin has won three times, and 30 Rock is an Emmy darling, but is that enough to help him? And Jim Parsons – who deserved to win last year – can he win back-to-back? I watch Big Bang, but I don’t remember anything that really stood out that cemented his win. Matt LeBlanc won for Friends years ago, so he may a chance. And despite his failed Joey Show, and ‘dumb’ character, he’s actually a really good actor. And then there’s Steve Carell. Could voters ‘waste’ their vote and give him a nice send off?

Outstanding Lead Actress in Comedy

* Edie Falco – Nurse Jackie

Laura Linney – The Big C

Melissa McCarthy – Mike & Molly

Amy Poehler – Parks and Recreation

Martha Plimpton – Raising Hope

Tina Fey – 30 Rock 

Falco’s win surprised me, but she too is an Emmy darling. Remember The Sopranos? I’d really like Martha Plimpton to win. There were a few episodes where I wondered if she’d be nominated. Melissa McCarthy is even a bigger surprise. But Tina Fey is the queen of this category. I just don’t know if it’s good overall that 30 Rock (and Mad Men) keeps winning. Fewer people will watch the Emmys since it’d be repeat winners every year.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in Comedy

Chris Colfer – Glee

* Eric Stonestreet – Modern Family

Ed O’Neill – Modern Family

Jesse Tyler Ferguson – Modern Family

Ty Burrell – Modern Family

Jon Cryer – Two and a Half Men

Chris Colfer won this year’s Golden Globe and Eric Stonestreet won the Emmy last year. Sometimes the Golden Globes can be good predictors, but not in this case. I think it will come down to those two men. Jon Cryer has a small shot as a previous winner. I think it would be nice if Ed O’Neill won just because he’s been around for some long and this is his first ever Emmy nomination. You’d think all the Modern Family men would cancel each other out, but only some of them do. Stonestreet remains king.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in Comedy

* Jane Lynch – Glee

Julie Bowen – Modern Family

Sofia Vergara – Modern Family

Kristen Wiig – Saturday Night Live

Jane Krakowski – 30 Rock

Betty White – Hot inCleveland

Think Jane Lynch may have this one locked up again, but Kristen Wiig is always there luring in the shadows. Jane Krakowski’s got the background, but I just think Lynch will win. She’s on a streak that may be hard to beat (right now). Betty White, despite her recent hot streak, may not be enough to win this category – sorry. Her competition may be too hard.

Outstanding Reality Program

The Amazing Race

American Idol

Dancing With the Stars

Project Runway

So You Think You Can Dance

* Top Chef

I really thought last year Project Runway would finally win. Nope – instead it was a fellow Bravo show – Top Chef. American Idol has been nominated nine times. Amazing Race has won 7 times. Yes, 7. While that’s great, again I think Emmy voters should spread the wealth. So I think that one is out. Dancing seems too fluffy to me, and American too amateur – karaoke too me. SYTYCD could be lumped into the same category. I just think voters want something classy, something that could be taken seriously – I hope that makes sense. I think I gotta go with Top Chef – just because it won last year so it’s got a good chance again this year.

Looking back – my choices look safe – meaning all the same people from last year. See if that’s true again this year. I really didn’t expect that to happen.

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